Category Archives: 2017 Tournament

March Madness – 1st Round Betting

The following tables display our predicted point spreads and point totals for all 2017 first round games, separated by region. The play-in teams are marked with an * and will be updated as needed. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the second row of the East Region table, our models have Wisconsin (-2.8) beating Virginia Tech by 2.8 points, and Vegas has Wisconsin (-5.5) beating Virginia Tech by 5.5 points. Positive numbers for both spread columns indicate that Team2 is favored. Additionally, our models have the total combined points scored in the Wisconsin-Virginia Tech game as 144.1 while Vegas has 137.

For more on the historical performance of our point spread and point total models, click here.

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March Madness – 1st Round Probabilities

The following tables display our predicted probabilities for all 2017 first round games, separated by region. The play-in teams are marked with an * and will be updated as needed. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row of the East Region table, our models give Villanova a 97% chance of beating Mount Saint Mary’s (and, conversely, Mount Saint Mary’s a 3% chance of beating Villanova). We have more content on the way, including 1st round point spreads and totals, as well as a look at how our numbers see the entire tournament field.

For more on our methodology, click here.

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March Madness Historical Brackets

The following article provides a brief overview of our March Madness win probability models and their historical bracket predictions on test data. For every game, the models produce a win probability for each team, which we use to fill out the bracket as a whole by advancing the team with the higher win probability. Check out all of our predicted brackets dating back to 2001.
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