The following tables display our predicted point spreads and point totals for all 2017 first round games, separated by region. The play-in teams are marked with an * and will be updated as needed. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the second row of the East Region table, our models have Wisconsin (-2.8) beating Virginia Tech by 2.8 points, and Vegas has Wisconsin (-5.5) beating Virginia Tech by 5.5 points. Positive numbers for both spread columns indicate that Team2 is favored. Additionally, our models have the total combined points scored in the Wisconsin-Virginia Tech game as 144.1 while Vegas has 137.
For more on the historical performance of our point spread and point total models, click here.
Continue reading March Madness – 1st Round Betting
The following tables display our predicted probabilities for all 2017 first round games, separated by region. The play-in teams are marked with an * and will be updated as needed. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row of the East Region table, our models give Villanova a 97% chance of beating Mount Saint Mary’s (and, conversely, Mount Saint Mary’s a 3% chance of beating Villanova). We have more content on the way, including 1st round point spreads and totals, as well as a look at how our numbers see the entire tournament field.
For more on our methodology, click here.
Continue reading March Madness – 1st Round Probabilities
In addition to using our models to fill out your bracket, we also have models designed to predict point spreads (i.e., margin of victory) and point totals (i.e., how many total points will be scored) that can be used in comparison to the Vegas spreads/totals for each game.
Continue reading March Madness – 2017 Betting Preview
The following article provides a brief overview of our March Madness win probability models and their historical bracket predictions on test data. For every game, the models produce a win probability for each team, which we use to fill out the bracket as a whole by advancing the team with the higher win probability. Check out all of our predicted brackets dating back to 2001.
Continue reading March Madness Historical Brackets