Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 2 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.

Highlights

Week 1 turned out to be quite the week for D/ST units in the Fantasy Football world with eleven teams scoring 10+ points and four of those scoring over 20. For those of you that rode with the Jags D/ST and dropped a 29 spot on your friend or co-worker (the Model projected them at 4.5 points), I applaud you and remind you that the analytically challenged folks like myself at Model 284 might be onto something here… Check out Fred’s segment of Man vs Model for more on that front.

We have a lot of solid options to go with in Week 2, but here are a couple that I particularly like:

BAL D/ST (vs CLE): After blanking the Bengals in Cincy last weekend and forcing Andy Dalton to turn the ball over 5 times, Baltimore is an obvious start this week at home against the Browns. Although the Browns seemed more functional than expected against a mediocre Steelers D, I’m still putting my money on their opponents for the foreseeable future. I salivate over Rookie QB’s, especially when they play in Cleveland. Let’s wait and see if Deshone Kizer can change that script by season’s end (and keep our fingers crossed that he won’t).

OAK D/ST (vs. NYJ): The New York Jets. Next! The only concern here is garbage time points, but even then, I’m really not certain the Jets can make good on that. Fire it up by all means, if you could FLEX a Defense they’d be in consideration.

JAX D/ST (vs TEN): Alright, I’m a big fan of Marcus Mariota and what’s going on down there in Tennessee. However, after last week’s showing I’m feeling emotionally intrigued by the Jags and think they’ve earned themselves a second date. The sun shines brighter in Jacksonville (post hurricane Irma, anyhow) so let’s see if they can prove to be more than just a streamer against one of the better offensive units in the AFC.

SEA D/ST (vs SF): The Model is pretty low on Seattle this week (projected at 6.3 points), but I like them at home against a questionable (albeit improved) Niners offense that was good for 14 Carolina D/ST points last week. In 2016, Seattle allowed 15.8 PPG at home to opponents – 4^th best in the league. I don’t see that trend changing this week against San Fran.

One last note – the Model has New England ranked as their #2 defense this week on the road against New Orleans (9.8 points). If they hit on that – disregard anything you’ve ever known and throw all your chips in on the Model for any and all things sports related. If you’re a Hammer the Over listener, remember that this is my Over of the Week (O/U 56.5) so I’ll be staying as far away from both D/ST’s in this game as possible. Good luck friends.