Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 15 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.

Onto the Semis we go! Week 15 gives us a handful of solid D/ST options, but is sure to test your commitment and trust in the Model… As you’ll see, all three of my “Not Sold” picks this week are projected for double digit scoring while not a single one of my “Must Starts” or “Streamers” do so. It’s a classic case of Man vs. Model, making your critical playoff lineup decisions even more difficult! With that, here are my Week 15 picks – I wish you all the best.

Must Starts:

BAL @ CLE (Proj: 8.1 pts)

PHI @ NYG (Proj: 5.4 pts)

MIN vs CIN (Proj: 7.1 pts)

Streamers I Like:

DET vs CHI (Proj: 7.4 pts): The Lions paid off as a streaming option last week, posting 10 points on two interceptions and three fumble recoveries against Tampa Bay. Although I usually don’t love streaming against division foes, drawing the Bears at Ford Field this week sets up for what should be another solid showing, especially given that it’s one of those weird, mid-December Saturday games the NFL throws at us ever year. Perhaps I’m just trying to convince myself that my decision to roll with them in my semifinals matchup is in fact the way to go, but who’s to say…

NO vs NYJ (Proj: 9.7  pts) Josh McCown did a solid job of yanking the Jets off of this list week to week, but with his season ending and Bryce Petty taking over, they’ve locked back in as a surefire stream against offense. The Saints D/ST has returned to earth after its mid-season explosion, but they serve as one of the top options this week, especially playing at home and coming off a tough loss in Atlanta last week. Expect the Saints to go up early and Petty to start firing balls into the hands of the Saints secondary.

DEN @ IND (Proj: 5.6 pts) The Broncos defense is a shell of its old self, but after back-to-back double-digit performances (albeit, against the Dolphins and Jets), they set up as a quality streaming option against the Colts this week. Indy has yet to fall out of the bottom three teams in terms of fantasy points allowed this season, further validating any decision to start a defense against them.

Not Sold:

LAC @ KC (Proj: 11.1 pts)

TEN @ SF (Proj: 10.4 pts)

WSH vs ARI (Proj: 10.2 pts)