Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 12 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.

Week 12 kicks off with a three game Turkey Day slate on Thursday, so make sure you’ve got your lineups set and ready to roll before you sit down at the table and begin stuffing your face. With the playoffs only two weeks out (in standard settings), you should be starting to get an idea of who you’re going to roll with in those pivotal three weeks. For those of us that don’t have the Jaguars D/ST, that may mean stashing more than one team on your roster to play the matchup game week in and week out. Fortunately, Week 12 is LOADED with quality D/ST matchups and a couple of great streaming options for those without a must-own squadron. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving from Model 284!

Must Starts:

PIT vs GB (Proj: 7.8 pts)

PHI vs CHI (Proj: 7.5 pts)

BAL vs HOU (Proj: 10.8 pts)

CIN vs CLE (Proj: 11.3 pts)

SEA @ SF (Proj: 16.1 pts)

Streamers I Like:

NE vs MIA (Proj: 9.0 pts): For the third week in a row, the Patriots find themselves as a high quality streaming option (only owned in 50% of leagues) as they square off with Dolphins who are the 27th ranked offense in terms of Fantasy Points allowed. As we continue to see, New England’s defense has turned a new leaf since its abysmal start, further evidenced by its quality outing last week in Mexico City against the Raiders. If New England is still available in your league, I view them as a quality start for the next three games (vs MIA, @ BUF, @ MIA) which could power you through the first two rounds of the playoffs.

ATL vs TB (Proj: 7.0 pts) The Falcons are making their playoff push, winning two straight against the Cowboys and Seahawks while posting double digit fantasy points in both contests. Combining Atlanta’s playoff aspirations and a matchup with the abysmal Tampa Bay Buccaneers sounds almost as fool proof as turkey and gravy. With Atlanta owned in only 21% of ESPN leagues, the Falcons are a near perfect streaming option for those of us fighting for a playoff spot and may very well be another bird that brings us joy this Thanksgiving weekend.

TEN @ IND (Proj: 4.4 pts) I continue to put my faith in the Titans, even after getting blown up for 40 points by Big Ben & co. on TNF last week. Despite the Colts still seeming semi-competent, they’re allowing an average of 12.4 fantasy points per game to opposing D/STs, making them a tasty stream-against option regardless of the opponent. Tennessee has one of the better playoff schedules in the league, making them a worthwhile stash or starter if you don’t have a better option locked in for the home stretch. #TitanUp

Not Sold:

KC vs BUF (Proj: 9.1 pts)

MIN @ DET (Proj: 9.9 pts)

OAK vs DEN (Proj: 11.4 pts)