Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 1 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings.

Highlights Week 1

To my fellow Fantasy Football aficionados, I congratulate you. We’ve survived another NFL offseason, and the Sunday morning rush we all know and love will finally return to us this very weekend. Hallelujah! If you find yourself reading this, I’m going to assume two things about you: 1) You play Fantasy Football (did I even need to say that?) and 2) D/ST matters to you when setting your lineup. I don’t think that gets enough credit in Fantasy, and although it’s hard to predict, there can be a lot of value in streaming your defense based on matchups from week to week.

With that said, I will be providing my own color and commentary on a few of the Fantasy D/ST matchups that I like going into every week. Some teams will be more obvious than others, but throughout the season the focus of this segment will primarily be on high-value streamers on a week-to-week basis. Although I will make reference to the Model’s projections, the majority of my analysis will be high-level, subjective, and from the gut – serving as a polar opposite to Model 284’s bread and butter. So if the language you speak is strictly analytics and numbers, scroll down a few notches and you’ll find what you’re looking for. And if you don’t like my takes, well, so be it.

Without further ado, let’s dive in to Week 1. Here are five matchups I like going into the opening week, in no particular order:

JAX D/ST (@ HOU): I’m going heavily against the Model on this one, but plug Tom Savage into an offense that surrendered 7.9 FPPG to opposing D/ST last year and expect more of the same. Jacksonville invested heavily in their defense this off-season (especially in the secondary), and I expect them to make some noise fantasy-wise in the sub-par AFC South. Keep them on your streaming radar throughout the season.

HOU D/ST (vs JAX): Even though I just pumped the tires on Jacksonville’s defense, Blake Bortles is still their Quarterback. I repeat, Blake Bortles is still their Quarterback. If we get the 2015 version of Bortles, I’ll eat my words, but until he proves otherwise, sound the alarms with Jacksonville matchups. JJ Watt is finally healthy and fresh off of a $27 Million (and counting) Hurricane Harvey Fundraiser. Along with the rest of the polished Texans defense, expect JJ to feast on Bortles and the Jags Sunday, and probably take down Hurricane Irma while he’s at it. The Model has HOU projected at just 4.5 points this week (!), the model nerds may want to check their calculators on that one…

DEN D/ST (vs LAC): Denver is arguably the only “must-start” D/ST in Fantasy this season, at least until proven otherwise (note they do have a new defensive coordinator). After finishing 1^st and 2^nd overall in the previous two seasons, respectively, and returning an almost identical roster, you can feel confident starting the Broncos at home against their division foe LA Chargers. Easy as that.

PIT D/ST (@ CLE): The Cleveland Brown Smears and a Rookie Quarterback in Deshone Kizer. Need I say more? The Model has PIT projected at a juicy 10.0 points this week – although they aren’t the Steelers of old, I think double digits should be the expectation here. If you don’t love your drafted D/ST’s matchup this week, consider grabbing PIT for a solid Week 1 stream if they’re still out there in your league.

CAR D/ST (@SF): The 2017 Carolina Panthers will look more like the 2015 Carolina Panthers than the 2016 team that hobbled in at 6-10 last season. That’s not to say that they’re the favorites in the NFC again (Cam should’ve dove on that ball), but I like their chances at a rebound season, especially on the defensive end under new D-Coordinator Steve Wilks. San Fran should be better than last season too, but unless they plan to have former coach Jim Tomsula in their backfield, I still seem them as a streamable matchup for any defensive unit.