Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 8 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 8 Projections

Carson Wentz went off against the skins last week to further cement himself as a top end fantasy QB. He is averaging 21.7 points per game on the back of 11 TDs in his last 3 games. Not every defense that Wentz has gone up against has been great, but none of them have been terrible either. That will change this week when he gets to play at home against a 49ers defense that is allowing 5.5 FPAE to opposing QBs this year (only New England has been worse). If the Eagles gunslinger can dominate average defenses, it’s no surprise that our model projects him to be the highest scoring QB this week with such a good matchup.

As long as we’re talking about breakout QB studs, we have to talk about Alex Smith…or should I say the new Payton Manning? Alex Smith has been a stud all year. He is currently QB1 on the season, hasn’t scored less than 15 points in any game, and has thrown no interceptions. So it seems like no surprise that he would be projected 19.2 points this week. He looks unstoppable, but if he can be stopped, Denver is as good of a bet as anybody to be the ones to do it. I know they got flat out embarrassed by the Chargers last week, but that pathetic showing still only yielded 15.3 points to Philip Rivers, and they have yet to give up over 18 fantasy points this year. In my opinion, this will be the best matchup of Week 8. Odds are Alex Smith won’t continue this historic run he’s on. My money is on Denver’s defense, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it went the other way.

I try to include a player each week that is a good one-game rental QB available in most fantasy leagues. This week, that player is Andy Dalton. Dalton has been bad all year. He has turned the ball over more times than he has thrown a TD, and has only broken 17 fantasy points once… So it’s hard to trust him against almost anyone. Luckily, he has a date with the Colts this week. Indy is allowing 5 FPAE against QBs this year, and can’t seem to get consistent pressure against anyone. That bodes well for Dalton, whose struggles have a lot to do with the Bengals problems up front. Cincinnati has weapons, but they haven’t had any time to use them. This game is the chance for anyone other than AJ Green to finally step up. I expect a solid outing for Dalton and so does our model, which has him projected to score 16.1 points (QB10). If you need a fill-in, or if you choose to stream QBs weekly, this guy is probably your best bet available this week.