Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 2 of 2017. Note that QBs who have yet to play 7 games are not included in our predictions.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, and a high average number of completions.

Week 2 Commentary

This week our quarterback model projects Alex Smith to follow up his career performance with another solid game in week 2. Smith will be going up against a Philadelphia defense that has allowed 4 points less than expected to opposing QBs over the last seven games. However, Smith’s is playing at home as a 5.5-point favorite with the 3rd highest total of the week (47.5). His ability to avoid turnovers and stay on his feet in the pocket align well with the Eagles’ average sack and interception numbers at the end of 2016.

Ben Roethlisberger got off to a pedestrian start in 2017, and we have reason to believe he won’t pick it up in week 2. He will be going up against a solid Minnesota Vikings defense. With Antonio Brown likely to be shadowed by Minnesota’s shut down corner Xavier Rhodes, Big Ben will likely have to find production amongst some of his other weapons on offense. Ben’s numbers of late have not been up to his usual standards, having scored as the QB22 over the last 7 games (including games from last year) Roethlisberger could use a big game, but our model wouldn’t bet on it this week.

Its worth noting that the model likes Tom Brady to be the top scoring QB this week. With a projection above 20 points (notably high in this model), he is one of three QB with such a projection. We don’t need to tell you that all three of these guys are must starts in all season long fantasy formats.