Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 14 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 14 Projections

Is the old new Alex Smith back? After struggling for the majority of November, Smith had a career game against the Jets last week, throwing for 366 yards and 4 TDs, along with a 70-yard rush. That 37.6-point performance was Smith’s highest total of the season. Apparently, the model is buying into that big-time game, as it has Smith leading all QBs with a projected 19.9 points this week. The only question is: does that performance outweigh his play the previous 4 weeks? For my money, I’m buying Smith this week. He has a solid home matchup against an underperforming Oakland secondary, an inefficient run game, and too many weapons to not find some production.

Coming in at QB13 in this week’s projections is…Blake Bortles? Okay, wait that can’t be right. This is so embarrassing, but it looks like that is the actual projection. After the shock that followed this discovery, I was forced to do some more research, and to my surprise, Bortles has quietly had back-to-back 22+ point games. However, those games were against Arizona and Indianapolis and included two rushing TDs (an unreliable means of fantasy production for QBs). That’s not to mention that they are playing the Seahawks. I’m not buying Bortles having a good game against a defense ranking 24th in FPAE vs. QBs.

I’m surprised to see Dak Prescott at QB24 in this week’s projections. While Prescott has had a rough ride since Zeke began serving his suspension, but the pieces are still there for him to succeed. Behind a struggling but still top end offensive line, capable running backs, and solid pass catchers, it’s only a matter of time before things work themselves out in Dallas. And this week he matches up against the McAdoo-less Giants who just put top corner Janoris Jenkins on IR. An already sorry defense just got worse, and Dak and the Cowboys are going to take advantage. While the model has Dak in the lower half of the projections, I would expect a finish closer to QB12.