Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 13 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 13 Projections

If everything keeps going the way it has been, Carson Wentz should be the MVP at the end of the season (sorry Russell Wilson). It’s no secret that he has been lighting it up in fantasy football, but you may be surprised to find out that he is doing so while ranking 15th in the NFL in passing yards per game, and 29th in completion percentage. Having 28 TDs to only 5 interceptions are the key numbers to Carson’s success. I’m a big believer in Wentz, but it’s always important to pay attention to these sorts of numbers that look out of place. As a Wentz owner, be aware that he is due to have his scoring tapper of a bit unless his yardage can pick up. This week he plays Seattle, which is a tough defense, even without Richard Sherman. The model has Wentz 3rd in this week’s projection at 18.9, but beware that this could end up being a trap game for the young QB. Either way, you are still 100% starting Wentz until he crashes and burns.

Matt Ryan has been extremely average this year. He is 10th in both yards/game and QB rating, 13th in TDs, and has thrown the 9th most interceptions. Despite all that, the model expects Ryan to finish as QB4 this week with 18.4 points (a number he’s only matched once this year, and never surpassed). The only reason I can think of for this strong endorsement is that the model must have seen that Mohammad Sanu TD last week and thought it was Matty Ice. I could get my head around this projection if he was playing the 49ers or the Giants, but he’s playing the Vikings this week. I think its fair to consider this Minnesota defense as one of the best in the league, especially with the Broncos and Seahawks beginning to look only extremely above average. If you’re playing someone who has Ryan, send them a screen shot of our rankings this week, and make sure he gets the start for them this week. Don’t miss your shot to cash in on an anomaly in this otherwise flawless model!

Anyone who has seen a Detroit game this year can tell you that Matthew Stafford IS the Lions. He has played well in a less than ideal situation all year. However, there is only so much one player can do, and it looks like the model knows that. This week Stafford is projected to finish as QB25, with 12.7 points. This low projection has just as much to do with the Lions struggles as it does with their tough matchup with the Ravens. Baltimore is allowing the 2nd least fantasy points to QBs this year, and likely aren’t going break that mold against such a pedestrian offense. If you have Stafford in fantasy, there are probably one or more better options available in your league (Josh McCown and Case Keenum are both good choices).