Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 12 of 2017.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 12 Projections

As of Week 12, Russell Wilson is the QB1 for the 2017 season. He is averaging 23.2 points per game and hasn’t scored less than 19 points since his Week 6 bye. This week he will be playing the 49ers, who are the 4th worst defense against fantasy QBs this year. This seems like an ideal situation, and the model projects Wilson to finish as QB5 this week. Wilson will have as high of a floor and ceiling as any QB this week – if you have him, you should be starting him.

Jared Goff showed us last week that he still wasn’t ready to hold up against strong defenses. This week will be another chance to prove himself against the Saints. While the Saints aren’t a defensive powerhouse in the way the Vikings are, they are still much better than a lot of the teams Goff has seen this year. The Model is projecting Goff to put up 18.6 points this week and finish as QB8. That seems like it could be a little high when you factor in the injury to Robert Woods.

Andy Dalton is coming off a 3 TD game in Denver and will look to stay hot against the Browns this week. Dalton hasn’t done much to impress this year, but his biggest game did come against Cleveland in Week 4. In that game, Dalton had 286 yards and 4 TDs. The Model must remember that somehow because Dalton is projected to just sneak into the top 12 QBs this week with 16.2 points. Dalton is a great streaming option this week.