Below are our projected fantasy points for starting Quarterbacks in Week 1 of 2017. Note that QBs who have yet to play 7 games are not included in our predictions.

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, and a high average number of completions.

Week 1 Commentary

The most surprising part of this week’s projection has to be Sam Bradford as a top-3 QB. Bradford is likely not starting in many fantasy leagues, and may not even be on a roster in some leagues. The reason for his unusually high prediction (Bradford averaged 14.7 fantasy points in 2016) has a lot to do with the team he will be playing against. The Saints defense is average or worse in all categories considered by the model, including fantasy points above expectation vs. QBs. With Bradford having a favorable spread, a high number of completions per game, and excellent conditions in U.S. Bank Stadium, it doesn’t seem quite as crazy for him to come up big in Week 1.

Another projection that stands out is Tyrod Taylor at 18.2 points (QB8). This prediction is almost entirely a product of the Bills situation in Week 1: playing a terrible Jets team with this week’s biggest spread (-9.5). Just about any QB in the league could have a good projection here… That being said, with all of the turmoil surrounding the Bills organization coupled with the loss of Sammy Watkins, it’s anyone’s guess if this positive prediction will hold up.