Using the average probability from our NHL Playoff Models, we have run a large-scale simulation for the 2017 NHL Playoffs. This allows us to estimate how often each team makes the semifinals, conference championship, Stanley Cup Finals, and ultimately win the Stanley Cup. In order to do this, we took each series and generated a random number between 0 and 1. If the random number is less than our predicted probability of the home team winning, then we advance the home team as the winner of that series (and vice versa if the random number is greater than our probability). For example, Model 1 has a probability of 0.74 that the Chicago Blackhawks will beat the Nashville Predators. If the random number is 0.95, we would pick the Predators to advance, and if the random number is 0.55, we would pick the Blackhawks to advance. This methodology was applied to the entire NHL Playoff bracket, generating 10,000 brackets and 10,000 Stanley Cup champions.
The table below displays the outcomes across all 10,000 simulations. The formerly Mighty Ducks of Anaheim barely oust the Pittsburgh Penguins for the highest probability of winning the Stanley Cup. Taking a high-level view, the Model sees the 2017 NHL Playoffs as a four-team race amongst Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Chicago. And if you are a Flames fan, I am sorry but I think it is safe to say the Flames aren’t winning the Cup this year.
| TEAM | MAKE Semi Finals | MAKE Conf Champ | MAKE Stanley Cup | WIN Stanley Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 85.1% | 55.8% | 29.0% | 15.9% |
| PIT | 63.2% | 33.4% | 25.4% | 15.5% |
| WSH | 66.9% | 36.6% | 26.1% | 15.2% |
| CHI | 73.8% | 46.2% | 26.9% | 14.3% |
| MIN | 49.1% | 21.7% | 11.3% | 6.3% |
| STL | 50.9% | 20.1% | 11.8% | 6.0% |
| NYR | 58.1% | 26.0% | 10.5% | 4.5% |
| CBJ | 36.8% | 17.6% | 10.1% | 4.4% |
| EDM | 51.2% | 23.5% | 8.9% | 3.5% |
| SJ | 48.8% | 17.8% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
| MTL | 41.9% | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% |
| BOS | 36.0% | 17.5% | 6.5% | 2.6% |
| NSH | 26.2% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| TOR | 33.1% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.0% |
| OTT | 64.0% | 31.2% | 7.4% | 1.3% |
| CGY | 14.9% | 2.8% | <1% | <1% |
For more information on the Methodology behind the NHL Playoff Model, see here.