After an otherwise forgettable first few weeks, this year’s NFL Playoffs were capped off by the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history, led by the league’s undisputed G.O.A.T, better known as Tom Brady. Facing a 25 point deficit part way through the third quarter, the legacy of the Brady-Belichick era was put on the line, and the light at the end of the tunnel was looking brighter and brighter for Roger Goodell. Little did he know, that light was a reflection beaming off of Brady’s fifth Super Bowl ring, and he’d soon be on the field coughing up the Lombardi trophy to the team he’s conspired against for the past several seasons. Although he dodged the bullet last year when the Broncos knocked the Patriots out in the AFC Championship Game, the four-game suspension he imposed on Brady to begin the year proved to only fuel the fire in the Patriots’ season of vengeance on the commissioner. Although our Models didn’t contain a variable of this nature, 5 of them correctly predicted the Patriots to beat the Falcons and our spread model had them winning by 9. For the playoffs as a whole, we had two models finish 10-1 (only missing the DAL/GB game) and our average Model finished 9-2. See the tables below for our predictions for all of this year’s games.
Model Records by Round
| MODEL | RD 1 | RD 2 | RD 3 | RD 4 | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 1-0 | 7-4 |
| Model 2 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 10-1 |
| Model 3 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 10-1 |
| Model 4 | 4-0 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 8-3 |
| Model 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 9-2 |
| Model 6 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 5-6 |
| Avg. | 4-0 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 9-2 |
| Spread (vs. Vegas) | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 5-6 |
| Spread (Winner Correct) | 3-1 | 2-2 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 8-3 |
Articles From Each Round
Playoff Simulation (before start of playoffs)
Wild Card Predictions
Divisional Round Predictions
Championship Game Predictions
Super Bowl Predictions
All Probabilities for 2016 Playoffs
| HM | AW | Rnd | Mod 1 | Mod 2 | Mod 3 | Mod 4 | Mod 5 | Mod 6 | Avg | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | OAK | 1 | 85% | 85% | 76% | 56% | 65% | 79% | 74% | OAK by 2 |
| SEA | DET | 1 | 99% | 92% | 77% | 91% | 58% | 46% | 77% | SEA by 2 |
| PIT | MIA | 1 | 98% | 92% | 87% | 92% | 77% | 97% | 91% | PIT by 6 |
| GB | NYG | 1 | 42% | 75% | 68% | 50% | 75% | 90% | 67% | GB by 10 |
| ATL | SEA | 2 | 8% | 58% | 53% | 35% | 64% | 86% | 51% | ATL by 10 |
| NE | HOU | 2 | 85% | 73% | 72% | 54% | 75% | 93% | 75% | NE by 17 |
| DAL | GB | 2 | 46% | 85% | 81% | 62% | 76% | 86% | 73% | DAL by 12 |
| KC | PIT | 2 | 8% | 25% | 48% | 32% | 52% | 93% | 43% | KC by 6 |
| ATL | GB | 3 | 47% | 78% | 75% | 67% | 53% | 20% | 57% | ATL by 3 |
| NE | PIT | 3 | 13% | 61% | 59% | 39% | 55% | 41% | 45% | NE by 7 |
| NE | ATL | 4 | 72% | 69% | 62% | 70% | 73% | 31% | 63% | NE by 9 |