March Madness – 1st Round Probabilities

The following tables display our predicted probabilities for all 2017 first round games, separated by region. The play-in teams are marked with an * and will be updated as needed. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row of the East Region table, our models give Villanova a 97% chance of beating Mount Saint Mary’s (and, conversely, Mount Saint Mary’s a 3% chance of beating Villanova). We have more content on the way, including 1st round point spreads and totals, as well as a look at how our numbers see the entire tournament field.

For more on our methodology, click here.

East Region

Seed 1 / Team 1Seed 2 / Team 2Team 1 ProbTeam 2 Prob
1 Villanova16 Mt St M0.970.03
8 Wisconsin9 Va-Tech0.740.26
5 Virginia12 NC-Wilm.0.540.46
4 Florida13 ETSU0.620.38
6 SMU11 USC*0.620.39
3 Baylor14 New-Mex0.740.26
7 South-Car10 Marq.0.700.30
2 Duke15 Troy0.840.16

West Region

Seed 1 / Team 1Seed 2 / Team 2Team 1 ProbTeam 2 Prob
1 Gonzaga16 SDSU0.790.21
8 NW9 Vandy0.820.18
5 ND12 Princeton0.990.01
4 WVU13 Bucknell0.850.15
6 Maryland11 Xavier0.270.73
3 Florida St14 FGCU0.500.50
7 St Marys10 VCU0.490.51
2 Arizona15 North Da0.990.01

Midwest Region

Seed 1 / Team 1Seed 2 / Team 2Team 1 ProbTeam 2 Prob
1 Kansas16 UC Davis0.770.23
8 Miami9 Mich St0.430.57
5 Iowa St12 Nevada0.510.49
4 Purdue13 Vermont0.300.70
6 Creighton11 Rhode Is0.770.23
3 Oregon14 Iona0.900.10
7 Michigan10 Okla. St0.940.06
2 Louisville15 Jax. St0.900.10

South Region

Seed 1 / Team 1Seed 2 / Team 2Team 1 ProbTeam 2 Prob
1 UNC16 TX So.0.990.01
8 Arkansas9 Seton Hall0.900.10
5 Minnesota12 Mid Tenn0.160.84
4 Butler13 Winthrop0.680.32
6 Cincy11 Kan St*0.820.18
3 UCLA14 Kent St0.900.10
7 Dayton10 Wich St0.060.94
2 Kentucky15 N Kent0.890.11