Category Archives: NFL

Man vs Model – NFL Week 3

Okay so, not a whole lot of movement last week with a total record of 3-3. Had some good wins (Baltimore-Cleveland under) and some bad losses. Hand in the air on that Bears game. That one’s on me, I’ll be better. I still think the Bears are going to have some value this year but you just can’t win ’em all. That being said I absolutely STUFFED those nerds and their model in a locker, beating that soul-less machine senseless 2-1. Absolutely drubbed the model by one win. You know the old adage: the worst lead in trying to beat a predictive model in sports gambling is a two-win lead, so I feel pretty comfortable with my current one win lead. Love where I’m at heading into week 3 but I certainly don’t want to get complacent. I’ve got a lot of people (maybe 2) counting on me to deliver so the last thing I need is that classic Week 3 hangover. Gotta keep bumping, and grinding, and delivering gut based picks. So that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Continue reading Man vs Model – NFL Week 3

Team Defense Projections – Week 3

Below are our projected Team Defensive Fantasy Points (based on ESPN Standard Scoring) for Week 3 of the 2017 NFL Season. These projections are from a model that takes into account a number of variables including team and player offensive and defensive metrics, situational factors in the game (such as, indoors or outdoors, divisional game, days of rest, and more), and lastly overall team rating measured by statistics such as our Elo Ratings. Continue reading Team Defense Projections – Week 3

Fantasy Points Above Expectation – Week 3

Fantasy Points Above Expectation (FPAE) is a metric we created to better capture how much fantasy production each team is giving up. FPAE measures how many fantasy points a team gives up to a certain position, relative to what they were expected to give up. For example, if New Orleans’s FPAE against QBs is 5.0, that means they have given up an average of 5.0 points more than expected to QBs. In this context, “expected” is referring to their opponents’ average fantasy points. We give a full explanation of FPAE here. FPAE values against each position group for Week 3 of 2017 are shown below. These values were calculated using each team’s last 7 games (PPR scoring).
Continue reading Fantasy Points Above Expectation – Week 3

2017 NFL Win Totals and Elo Ratings

Below is a table of our 2017 NFL projected win totals and Elo Ratings (heading into Week 3). Rank is based upon each team’s Projected Win Total for the remainder of the season, which is derived from our NFL Season Simulator. The standard deviation associated with each team’s Projected Win Total is denoted SD. Tune in for weekly updates to these figures throughout the 2017 NFL Season. Our NFL Season Simulator Methodology and Elo Rating Methodology articles provide further explanation in how we calculate our Projected Win Totals and Elo Ratings, respectively.

Continue reading 2017 NFL Win Totals and Elo Ratings

Man vs Model – NFL Week 2

Welcome back to another installment of Man vs Model. Last week I was 1-1 against the model with the under hitting easily in the Baltimore-Cincinnati game and the 49ers letting me down in a big way in a blowout loss to Carolina. All things considered, I’d say that’s not a bad start to my lifelong battle against the machine, but I’m not a huge fan of the idea of tying in general. Sports, and really anything in life, shouldn’t end in ties. Just defeats the purpose competing in the first place. We play until there’s a winner, or until they drag us off the field kicking, screaming, and covered in blood. So with that being said, we are gonna change things up a little bit in the format of this blog. First, I’ll be adding another game to my picks against the model. This way there is at least a clear cut winner between me and that cold, heartless machine. Additionally, I will be adding a couple of more picks that I like that aren’t necessarily in contrast to the model. Our numbers are right more than 50% of the time, so it would be foolish of me not to use the model with some of my picks. So without further ado, let’s get into it. Continue reading Man vs Model – NFL Week 2