Category Archives: College Basketball

March Madness – Elite 8

The first table displays our predicted win probabilities for the Elite 8, followed by a table showing our predicted point spreads, point totals, and over probabilities. As an example of how to interpret the predictions, in the first row of the win probability table, our models give Florida a 61% chance of beating South Carolina (and, conversely, South Carolina a 39% chance of beating Florida). The favored team according to our probabilities (i.e., > 50% chance of winning) has their probability marked in green. In the first row of the second table, our models have Florida (-6.3) beating South Carolina by 6.3 points, and Vegas has Florida (-3) beating South Carolina by 3 points. Positive numbers for both spread columns indicate that Team2 is favored. Additionally, our models have the total combined points scored in the Gonzaga vs. Xavier game as 141.7 (Vegas has 145.0), with a 74% chance of going over the total (note that the over probability model and the point total model are generated separately, so their predictions will not always agree).
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March Madness – Sweet 16 Betting

The following table displays our predicted point spreads, point totals, and over probabilities for all eight Sweet 16 games. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row, our models have Florida (+2.2) losing to Wisconsin by 2.2 points, and Vegas has Florida (-2) beating Wisconsin by 1.5 points. Positive numbers for both spread columns indicate that Team2 is favored. Additionally, our models have the total combined points scored in the Florida-Wisconsin game as 131.5 (Vegas also has 131.5), with a 57% chance of going over the total.

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March Madness – Sweet 16 Probabilities

The following table displays our predicted win probabilities for all eight Sweet 16 games. As an example of how to interpret the predictions, in the first row, our models give Florida a 21% chance of beating Wisconsin (and, conversely, Wisconsin a 79% chance of beating Florida). The favored team according to our probabilities (i.e., > 50% chance of winning) has their probability marked in green. For more on our methodology, click here.

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March Madness – 2nd Round Betting

The following table displays our predicted point spreads, point totals, and over probabilities for all sixteen 2017 second round games. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row, our models have Villanova (-6) beating Wisconsin by 6 points, and Vegas also has Villanova (-6) beating Wisconsin by 6 points. Positive numbers for both spread columns indicate that Team2 is favored. Additionally, our models have the total combined points scored in the Villanova-Wisconsin game as 130.8 (while Vegas has 128.5), with a 45% chance of going over the total.

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March Madness – 2nd Round Probabilities

The following table displays our predicted probabilities for all 2017 second round games. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row, our models give Villanova a 65% chance of beating Wisconsin (and, conversely, Wisconsin a 35% chance of beating Villanova). The favored team according to our probabilities (i.e., > 50% chance of winning) has their probability marked in green. For more on our methodology, click here.

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March Madness – Tournament Simulation

The following table provides each team’s percent chance of advancing to a given round, based on a simulation using our win probability models1. This allows us to view each team’s chances of making the Elite 8, Final 4, or any other round, and to compare that team to others in the field. For example, in the first row, our models give Arizona a 98.4% chance of advancing to the 2nd round, 51.0% chance of making the Final 4, 31.6% chance of making the title game, and 24.1% chance of winning it all. Continue reading March Madness – Tournament Simulation

March Madness – Regional Breakdown

The following provides a breakdown of each region, showing the results from our simulation of 60,000 tournaments for each team in a given region. Our full bracket of predictions can be found here. The probabilities show the probability that each team has of advancing to each round of the tournament. For example, in the first row of the East Region table, we give Duke a 31% chance of reaching the Final Four.

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