All posts by Sam Walczak

Round 2 Predictions | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for all 2nd Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

Continue reading Round 2 Predictions | March Madness 2018

Round 1 Predictions | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for all 1st Round games in the 2018 tournament. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

Continue reading Round 1 Predictions | March Madness 2018

Bracket Analysis | March Madness 2018

The article below discusses how our models view this year’s tournament field, and which teams are most likely to make a deep run. This is done in context of 60,000 simulations1 of this year’s tournament, which were performed using win probability predictions from our models. That simulation ultimately provides probabilities of each team advancing to the Sweet 16, Final Four, etc. Note that play-in game teams are subject to change.  Continue reading Bracket Analysis | March Madness 2018

Model 284 Bracket | March Madness 2018

Below is our Model 284 consensus bracket for the 2018 tournament. As you will see from our Round 1 Predictions and tournament simulation results, we do not necessarily pick the model’s predicted winner for every single game, but rather using our predictions weighed against popular public picks and focusing on our numbers for which teams are most likely to make it out of each region / sub-region.

If you want to hear more on what our model’s predictions, we discussed the bracket in detail on this week’s episode of the Model 284 podcast.

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Model 284 Podcast: March Madness Bracket Analysis

In this episode of the Model 284 Podcast, Sam Walczak and Marc Richards break down our models’ march madness predictions including win probabilities, spreads, totals, and everything you need to know for filling out your bracket. Additionally, Sam and Marc give their sales pitch on why you should use Model 284 when filling out your bracket which includes insights into how we build our models and what is unique about Model 284 March Madness predictions.

Listen on iTunes here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/model-284-podcast/id1356851364?mt=2

Play-In Games | March Madness 2018

The article below provides our predictions for the four 2018 play-in games. A brief description of how to interpret the predictions is provided in each section. If you’re interested in further detail on our models, check out these articles:

Continue reading Play-In Games | March Madness 2018

Model 284 Podcast: Episode 1

We are happy to introduce another podcast in the Model 284 family. This podcast is hosted by Marc Richards and Sam Walczak and will focus on sports analytics, providing a deeper dive into the work being done at Model 284, and serving as another platform to share our work. The Model 284 podcast is presented by Wallace Carlson Printing.

On the inaugural episode, we give a brief history of how Model 284 came to be, the work we have done so far, and what you can expect to get out of this podcast. Next, we discuss some of the recent content at Model 284 (including a quick preview of March Madness), touch on a few hot topics in the sports analytics world, give our advanced stats of the week, and finish with some NFL combine hypotheticals.

You can subscribe to the Model 284 Podcast on iTunes here.