All posts by Sam Walczak

March Madness – 1st Round Probabilities

The following tables display our predicted probabilities for all 2017 first round games, separated by region. The play-in teams are marked with an * and will be updated as needed. As an example of how to interpret the tables, in the first row of the East Region table, our models give Villanova a 97% chance of beating Mount Saint Mary’s (and, conversely, Mount Saint Mary’s a 3% chance of beating Villanova). We have more content on the way, including 1st round point spreads and totals, as well as a look at how our numbers see the entire tournament field.

For more on our methodology, click here.

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2016 Super Bowl Predictions

We use team statistics to create models that predict outcomes of NFL games. Our models generate either a win probability for the home team or a point spread, with each model generating a unique prediction. See this article for a more detailed breakdown of each model. So far this postseason, our average probabilities have picked 8/10 games correctly, and Models 2 and 3 have been the most accurate individual models, both going 9 for 10.
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2016 NFL Championship Round Recap

In the two conference championship games on Sunday, our average probabilities went 1-1, correctly picking the Falcons (57%), but missing the Steelers (55%), to bring the average probability record for the playoffs to 8-2. Models 2 and 3 remained the most accurate, as they each had the Falcons winning (78% and 75%, respectively) and the Patriots winning (61% and 59%, respectively) to bring their records to 9-1 for the playoffs as a whole. Model 5 also went 2-0 this weekend, and improved to 8-2 for the playoffs. Our spread missed the Falcons (had ATL winning by only 3 points), but correctly predicted that the Patriots would cover (had NE winning by 7).  Check back later this week for our Super Bowl predictions!
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2016 NFL Championship Game Predictions

We use team statistics to create models that predict outcomes of NFL games. Our models generate either a win probability for the home team or a point spread, with each model generating a unique prediction. Our models consider many different metrics, such as turnovers, first downs, points scored, pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as a few metrics that we have created ourselves. Beyond these statistics, some models consider factors such as “did a team make the playoffs last year?” and “how far is the away team traveling?” See this article for a more detailed breakdown of each model. So far this postseason, our average probabilities have picked 7/8 winners correctly, and Models 2 and 3 have been the most accurate – also going 7 for 8.
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2016 NFL Divisional Round Recap

In the second round, our average probabilities went 3-1, and all models individually were either 3-1 or 2-2. Model 1 was the only one to correctly pick the Packers over the Cowboys. For the playoffs as a whole, Models 2 and 3 are performing best, as they have correctly picked 7 of the 8 games, while Model 6 is performing worst, only picking 5 of 8 games correctly. The average probabilities are also 7-1, only missing the Packers/Cowboys game. Click here to see all of our predictions from the past weekend. Check back later this week for our Conference Championship game predictions!
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2016 NFL Divisional Round Predictions

We use team statistics to create models that predict outcomes of NFL games. Our models generate either a win probability for the home team or a point spread, with each model generating a unique prediction. Our models consider many different metrics, such as turnovers, first downs, points scored, pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as a few metrics that we have created ourselves. Beyond these statistics, some models consider factors such as “did a team make the playoffs last year?” and “how far is the away team traveling?” See this article for a more detailed breakdown of each model. The article below focuses on the four divisional round matchups for the coming weekend, but a breakdown of predictions for the entire 2016 NFL Playoffs can be found here, and our predictions from round 1 are here, where our average probabilities correctly predicted all four winners.
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2016 NFL Wild Card Predictions

We use team statistics to create models that predict outcomes of NFL games. Our models generate win probabilities and point spreads, and we consider six different models, each of which generates a unique prediction for a given game. Each model considers metrics from a number of different areas, such as turnovers, first downs, points scored, pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency, time of possession, drive statistics, point differential, as well as a few metrics that we have created ourselves. Beyond these statistics, the models also consider factors such as “did a team make the playoffs last year?” and “how far is the away team traveling?” The article below focuses on the four Wild Card matchups for this coming weekend, but a breakdown of predictions for the entire 2016 NFL Playoffs can be found here.
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