2017 Peak NBA Statline Projection Model

Peak NBA Statline Projection (PNSP) is a model used to project NBA success for college basketball players based upon their individual and team college basketball statistics, physical measurements, high school scouting rankings, and college basketball experience. The PNSP model returns a single rating value from 0 to 100. A higher rating value indicates a “better” NBA prospect. We provide a more detailed article outlining how PNSP is formulated here. Below are a few highlights of PNSP’s ratings for the 2017 NBA Draft Class,

Highlights

First and foremost, it is important to remember that a player’s PNSP score is based on the distribution of players within the same position. Ranking of players by PNSP across different positions is a different use than originally intended. For example, saying Jonathan Isaac is a “better” prospect than Markelle Fultz because his 97.1 PNSP rating is higher than Fultz’s 96.5 is not necessarily true because they play different positions.

Anyway, PNSP’s 2017 top NBA Draft prospect is Jonathan Isaac. Isaac has ideal physical tools, an overall versatile game, and elite defensive ability at the wing position, which make him PNSP’s top prospect in 2017 Draft. Not so far behind are Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and surprisingly Caleb Swanigan. Swanigan posted gaudy numbers, averaging 18.5 points per game, 12.5 rebounds per game, 3.0 assists per game, and shot an impressive 44.7% from 3 on 85 attempts. While Swanigan’s college statistics were impressive, it is tough to see him fitting defensively in the modern day NBA. PNSP also strongly liked Henry Ellenson last year, so it’s fair to say PNSP might not have fully “learned” what constitutes a modern-day NBA big.

One consensus top prospect missing from the top 10 is Josh Jackson. PNSP heavily weights shooting ability, and thus Josh Jackson’s 56.6% college free throw percentage severely limits his NBA potential from PNSP’s perspective. Jackson still receives a solid rating at 72.0, but he tumbles down the board to 17, partially due to the fact that PNSP rates this draft class highly as a whole: 4 prospects score higher than 90, and 13 rated higher than 80 (16% of draft-eligible players)! Compare that to last year’s draft class, in which PNSP rated only 4 players above 80 (9% of drafted players).

Over the next couple of days, we will release our NBA Role Probability Model and Similarity Scores for 2017 Draft prospects. Following that, we will break down some of the top prospects by piecing together our 3 components to better assess each prospect, and ultimately create a consensus draft board.

RankPlayerSchoolPNSP
1Jonathan IsaacFlorida State97.1
2Markelle FultzWashington96.5
3Caleb SwaniganPurdue93.8
4Lonzo BallUCLA91.0
5Dennis SmithNC State89.4
6Jayson TatumDuke88.6
7Zach CollinsGonzaga83.6
8De'Aaron FoxKentucky83.2
9Jordan BellOregon83.0
10TJ LeafUCLA82.8
11Lauri MarkkanenArizona81.7
12John CollinsWake Forest81.4
13Sindarius ThornwellSouth Carolina80.0
14Moritz WagnerMichigan78.9
15Donovan MitchellLouisville78.3
16Malik MonkKentucky77.1
17Josh JacksonKansas72.0
18Aaron HolidayUCLA69.4
19Josh HartVillanova68.4
20Omer YurtsevenNC State67.4
21Jake WileyEastern Washington65.9
22Dedric LawsonMemphis65.5
23Alec PetersValparaiso64.3
24Justin PattonCreighton63.7
25Derrick WhiteColorado62.8
26Ike AnigboguUCLA62.7
27Thomas BryantIndiana62.2
28L.J. PeakGeorgetown61.8
29Cameron OliverNevada60.0
30Chris BoucherOregon59.7
31Ivan RabbCalifornia58.8
32Thomas WelshUCLA58.7
33Melo TrimbleMaryland57.6
34Kennedy MeeksUNC57.5
35Johnathan MotleyBaylor56.9
36Nigel Williams-GossGonzaga56.7
37Frank MasonKansas56.6
38Edrice AdebayoKentucky56.3
39Rawle AlkinsArizona55.5
40Kadeem AllenArizona53.9
41Jacob EvansCincinnati53.6
42Jawun EvansOklahoma State52.6
43Frank JacksonDuke51.8
44Luke KennardDuke48.4
45OG AnunobyIndiana48.2
46Tony BradleyOregon47.8
47Harry GilesDuke46.7
48Jarrett AllenTexas46.4
49D.J. WilsonMichigan45.5
50Tyler LydonSyracuse45.3
51Semi OjeleyeSMU44.6
52Kyle KuzmaUtah44.0
53Malcolm HillIllinois43.2
54Justin JacksonUNC42.8
55Drew EubanksOregon State42.0
56Dillon BrooksOregon41.6
57Joel BerryUNC41.5
58P.J. DozierSouth Carolina38.2
59Isaac HumphriesKentucky36.0
60Monte MorrisIowa State32.7
61Kobi SimmonsArizona31.3
62Deng AdelLouisville30.3
63Wesley IwunduKansas State29.3
64Luke KornetVanderbilt25.4
65Chandler HutchisonFlorida25.4
66Isaiah BriscoeKentucky24.9
67Devin RobinsonFlorida24.3
68Tacko FallUCF24.1
69Sviatoslav MykhailiukKansas22.0
70Grayson AllenDuke21.9
71V.J. BeachemNotre Dame16.9
72Andrew WhiteSyracuse15.7
73Bronson KoenigWisconsin14.0
74Damyean DotsonHouston10.3
75Antonius ClevelandSE Missouri9.6
76Jaron BlossomgameClemson8.1
77Przemek KarnowskiGonzaga7.5
78Tyler DorseyOregon7.0
79Vitto BrownWisconsin6.2
80Isaiah HicksUNC5.7
81Nigel HayesWisconsin3.1

*Data retrieved from Basketball ReferenceSports Reference and DraftExpress.

Written by  Marc Richards and Jack Werner.

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