In the two conference championship games on Sunday, our average probabilities went 1-1, correctly picking the Falcons (57%), but missing the Steelers (55%), to bring the average probability record for the playoffs to 8-2. Models 2 and 3 remained the most accurate, as they each had the Falcons winning (78% and 75%, respectively) and the Patriots winning (61% and 59%, respectively) to bring their records to 9-1 for the playoffs as a whole. Model 5 also went 2-0 this weekend, and improved to 8-2 for the playoffs. Our spread missed the Falcons (had ATL winning by only 3 points), but correctly predicted that the Patriots would cover (had NE winning by 7). Check back later this week for our Super Bowl predictions!
|MODEL||RD 1||RD 2||RD 3||RD 4||TOT|
|Spread (vs. Vegas)||1-3||2-2||1-1||–||4-6|
|Spread (Winner Correct)||3-1||2-2||2-0||–||7-3|